Chickafinty ~ A Life in the Laundry

Tomorrow

It's possible, possible that we could wake up tomorrow and find that the world has gone to pot.

Or we could wake up tomorrow and discover that rainbow-pooping unicorns have been cavorting on the lawn.

My money would be on the pot-bit, but then I am a glass half-empty kind of girl.

So close I can almost taste it

90 days down and 2 days to go until spring.

Already the quality of the light and air has changed.  There's a promise in the breeze that warm days are coming.  The birds in the backyard are, more often than not, cavorting in pairs and preparing for the spring to come.  The sun has climbed higher in the sky and is equally favouring the quadrants of the clothesline.  I know that's a bit prosaic for a litany in praise of spring, but it's the little things like that which matter.  And this is after all the account of a life lived in the laundry.

For the first time in years I have the time to stop and notice the change in the season.  There's time to stand still for a bit and watch the sun, ponder its movement and glory in its warmth.  Today is chillier, and I'm tempted to grab a jumper, but I won't.  Spring is almost here and it is so close I can almost taste it.  The light is different.  It's not the icy light of winter any more.  The days are longer, but not yet all that much warmer.  They will be given the passage of a little time.  We had a few days, a fortnight or so ago, where winter stole a few of spring's days and the warmth of the breeze soaked into every pore.  Then winter turned nasty again and all we were left with was the memory of sun.

It's so close.  We'll mark off the start of another season.  I'll pack away the jumpers and my beloved rugby top for another year.  This has been the rugby top's 15th winter and it is showing its age.  It's frayed at collar, the hem is hanging and with every wash it threatens to become a little more threadbare, but it is my favourite garment.  It makes winter bearable.  I've had to apologise for it this year because it looks so ragged, but despite its decrepit state, or perhaps because of it, I love it.

Spring is coming.  In two days it will be spring.  Another winter weathered, and a new season to anticipate.

So the question is...

Will the Commonwealth Games go ahead?
Will the Australian team pull out?
Will any other Commonwealth nations pull out?

#1

michael kroger is predicting 75 Lab, 71 Lib at 5.05pm...bit too early, way too close to call at this stage (channel 9)

ABC is predicting 51.2% Lab/48.8% Lib, but their polling has been fluctuating all day...rather like my blood pressure lol

liveblogging Australia Decides

have decided to throw caution to the winds and liveblog tonight's election

will dispense with capital letters and punctuation for speed of blogging tonight...it hurts, but some things have to go

am also twittering tonight @scrappinbear...feel free to join in in either place

A word on housing "affordability"

Ross Greenwood was on the Today show this morning, spruiking the possibility of a new housing boom based on the "increased afforability of homes".

What the??

Affordability (apparently) increases when demand is high and interest rates low i.e. the current situation.  Huh??

I thought affordability was the ability to "afford" the mortgage repayments.

Let's look at a smaller example for a minute.

Demand for enormous flat screen tvs is high.  Interest rates are low.  According to the current economic model the affordability for flat screen tvs must be huge.

But it isn't.  A quick look at our bottom line indicates that we cannot afford a huge flat screen tv.  The interest rate is irrelevant if the repayments cannot be made in the first place.  The number of flat screen tvs is irrelevant if we cannot afford to buy one.

The average house price in Sydney is $544000.  By what measure is this affordable?  Over half a million dollars for the average home, when the average income is $60000.  On that basis you need TWO average wages to "afford" ONE house.  Huh?!?!?!?

The economists have gone mad, but that wouldn't matter, except that the government is relying on them to run the asylum.

Simply explained

Step 1: read this (link opens in new window)

Step 2: substitute $8000 tax credit for First Home Buyer's Grant,

and there you have the situation of thousands of Australians.

Some of them will be all right.  Most of them won't.

When will this debt madness end.

The Golden Parity Party (and that's not good news)

We're hit on all sides by the media.  News comes prepackaged in ever-decreasing bites and it is easy to just let it all happen.

Ever since I happened upon Chris Martenson, I've been paying much closer attention to the news, especially the economic news, and asking some questions...sometimes here, sometimes elsewhere.

Then I found Steve Keen, a local bloke (and economist) from the University up the road, and I began to listen even more carefully to the news.

I am not "into" economics.  In fact, just a brief glance at my mark in the HSC for economics will indicate that 40% of the students who studied economics that year did better than I did.

But even a limited understanding of economics can lead to the asking of questions that are being ignored in the MSM (main-stream media), or brushed over by the economic reporters.

Here's just a few questions that I wold like to propose:

1.  How can 27100 people have lost their jobs in Australia in August but there be no change to the total unemployment rate?  Sounds like someone is cooking the books to make things seem rosier than they actually are.  Why are they hiding the information and what are they frightened will happen if they tell the truth?

2.  Why has the price of gold shot through the roof in the last two weeks?  The gold price is (quickly) sandwiched between commodity prices and the currency rates on the news.  It's usually stated without comment.  So what, you may ask?  Gold has broken through the $1000 an ounce barrier.  That's BIG news, but no one is mentioning it in the MSM.  I wonder why?  (see point 3)

3.  A parity party is becoming more likely.  What's a parity party??  That's when the US dollar and the AUD are both worth $1.  It means the Aussie dollar is stronger, but that also means that the US dollar is weaker.  The weaker the dollar, the more money being used to buy gold rather than currency. (See point 2.)  Gold, unlike paper money, has intrinsic value.  A dollar is only worth a dollar because the Reserve Bank (or the Federal Treasury in the US) says it is.  Gold has -real- value whereas paper money only has imputed value.  The Aussie dollar is currently at about $0.86US but that figure is slowly climbing.

If the Aussie dollar is climbing against the greenback AND the price of gold is sky-rocketing, that probably means a loss of confidence in the American dollar, forcing those who know what they are on about to buy gold rather than paper money (or any assets grounded in paper money like bonds and securities and things...I said I was no economist!!)  High demand for scarce resource = high prices.  Why is gold going up?  Because lots of people are buying gold.  Why are they buying gold?  They have no confidence in currency with imputed-only value.  Why this lack of confidence?  There's a debt bubble about to burst.

Steve Keen has had a lot to say about dodgy economic theory and practice on his website and I encourage you to have a close look at his site and his articles, especially the one today which was published in the Sydney Morning Herald.

If you are further interested in this subject, may I direct you to Chris Martenson and Karl Denninger, who maintain comprehensive websites devoted to the GFC and what it means for the little person.  Unlike me, they know what they are talking about.

It seems to me that it's better to know what's going on, than to stand back afterwards and say "I didn't see *that* coming".

On falling short

I am typing in the midst of a mess.  Piles of paper, empty jewel cases (the cd kind), a dvd spindle, about 148000 old business cards belonging to Mister Bear from his former job.

There's stuff on the floor, on the desk, on the window sill.

There's boxes of scrapping stuff not yet unpacked from the Girls Night In two weeks ago.

The dining room is not much better. We haven't done any dining in there for quite a while.

The sofa bed is piled with sheets and towels that have to be inspected before they can be folded and put away.  Chickabid had a huge play in the flooded poo pit last week (don't ask.  please, if you love me, don't ask) and some of the stuff on the line got fouled.  I am trying to screw up the courage to deal with it, but no success yet.

The lounge room is passable...so long as you ignore the filthy carpet overdue for a steam clean.  The bedrooms- over them we shall draw a veil.

The toy room is fine so long as the door stays shut.

I am a child of the King, but my life is so screwed and flawed how can His light possibly shine out.  I'm at the end of my ability to cope.  I'm writing over here about what's really going on, and where I think we're headed and why.  I am torn between this life which is commanding so much time and effort, and the life which is to come.  I guess the biggest encouragement is seeing for the first time that the "great ones" of the Bible weren't really all that great after all.  They were fallible, frail human beings just like me.  They made mistakes - huge ones some of them...Peter and Moses immediately spring to mind - but they didn't trust in themselves.  They put their trust in God.  They didn't try to be more than they were.  They certainly didn't hold themselves up as spiritual models "Look at how fabulously spiritual I am", rather they looked to Jesus - the author and finisher of their faith.  Now, going back and looking at their words and actions we can clearly see the light shining through.  But they themselves were oblivious to the light and were only aware of their shortcomings and how far short they fell.

My personal inclination is to throw in the towel and give up.  To stop even trying for that perfection, cos brother, it ain't gonna happen.  But then, some encouragement from Philippians.  We're studying Philippians on Tuesday nights at home group and this verse jumped out.  It's from Philippians chapter 1 and verse 6"...being confident of this, that he who began a good work in you will carry it on to completion until the day of Christ Jesus."

I don't get to throw in the towel.  There is still work for me to do. 

I'll be honest.  I am frightened.  I am frightened not about the end, for I know that is secure.  I am frightened about what lies between now and the end.  The Unknown.  At this time in history we're a mirror of Noah's time.  Noah knew that time was running out and he knew that he had a God appointed job to do.  Then, as now, there were those who mocked and scoffed and chose not to believe.  Noah had the strength and the courage to keep going in spite of the unbelief around him.  He chose to put his faith in God.  The rest of the people considered him a bit of a loony.  That was until the first raindrops fell.  Then they were forced to believe, but it was too late.

There will be more about this line of thinking at the climate change blog, but for the moment I'll say this.

We are nearing the end.  To continue the Noah metaphor, the storm clouds are gathering.  Opinion varies as to what they mean.  Some think it will pass over.  Some think that the clouds are empty.  Some refuse to see the clouds at all.  Some blame the clouds on God, or on his people.  George W is probably blamed for the clouds in some quarters.

Oh, yes.  The storm clouds are there and when they break, all hell will also break loose.  Pun completely and utterly intended.  But on those same clouds will come the Saviour, ready to gather His own.  The clouds that brought destruction to the world in Noah's day meant salvation to those resting in the safety of the ark.  It's worth thinking about and pondering on.

And while we wait, I have some housework to do ;)

Chris, Cassandra, Wall St and the tin box under the bed

I'd like to introduce you to Chris Martenson.  He's so up-to-the-minute that he doesn't even warrant a wikipedia page yet.  He has, however, managed to do in 2.5 hours what Mr Warnes failed to do over two years and that is to get me to understand economics.  His crash course is excellent and I strongly recommend that you take it.  You'll never look at the "boring bits" on the news in the same way again i.e. Dow Jones, FTSE100, price of gold/oil and the dollar/pound/euro against the greenback etc.

Today Chris is foreshadowing a Bank Holiday.  Sounds nice, doesn't it.  It's not.  The last Bank Holiday was for five days in 1933 when Franklin D Roosevelt closed the banks.  Closed.  As in, no money in.  And no. money. out.

How would you do with no access to money for five days?  No credit cards, no debit cards, no EFTPOS, no ATM, no cash, no payments, no direct debit.  Nothing, nada, zip.

Some might consider that Chris is a Chicken Little wildly shouting that the sky is falling.  Others, after taking the crash course and using their brains a bit, might conclude that the sky IS falling.  Furthermore, some may realise that bits of the sky are lying scattered in the street, but everyone's too busy checking their Facebook profile, Thinking They Can Dance or pondering Sarah Palin's shoes, to notice.

I think the time has come to get the tin box under the bed.  It's a euphemism people...there really isn't a tin box under the bed!  It means that I think it's time to consider that nothing is safe, not even the banks.  It's time to pay attention, take responsibility and be prepared.  Lay in some food stocks on staples: flour, rice, butter, milk (powdered!  I mean it!!  It won't kill you), noodles, stock cubes.  Plant a few vegetables, even if it's just a single tomato plant in a pot.  Store up some tinned goods and cereals.  Pay cash.  Pare off everything you don't *need* from the budget.  If the world economy goes under - and it may well do so - your disposable income is going to go kaput.  We're planning ahead.  If necessary we could provide housing for a whole 'nother family in our home and we'd be prepared to do so.  A second family could be accomodated in the garage.  I'm not joking.  The toy room is being attacked today and the toys culled.  We've got double cupboards which are about to become a food store.  I'm teaching myself to sew again and have plans for the vegetable plot.  They've been sort of tentative plans for years, but now it's essential. 

This is the way it could go. 

I *know* our government is saying we'll be OK, our economy is strong, our banks are regulated, our commodities are still popular rah, rah, rah.  That may well be so.  But the days of economic isolation are over.  We are members of the global economy and what affects the US is going to affect us too.

I'd love to think that I've actually flipped my lid, but it ain't so.

Please.  Take the crash course.  Think about the issues for yourself.  Then start making some plans.  The day will come when you'll be very glad you did.